Tip 23 – Hit if race advantage is not obvious

During the end of the game with a very thin contact before the game dissolves into a pure race, don’t pay too much attention to “race when you are ahead” rule if you don’t have an overwhelming advantage in the race and don’t get shy with loose hits. Be more willing to hit when the blot is closer to its home board. If your opponent holds the cube be more aggressive in hitting; if you hold it keep your excitement to hit a little lower. Be courageous even if your opponent’s home board looks strong.

A typical scenario will make it clear if you do simple math. For example assume your opponent will have 31% return shots after your hit; and if not hit back you will have 90% winning cubeless (you don’t have it) and 100% cubeful winning chances. Is it better to keep rolling and giving your opponent 40% winning chances during the ongoing parlay or giving 31% immediately by seemingly paying a bigger chance because it is all determined in one roll. Let math beat our psychological bias and hit.

I23-HitIfRaceAdvantageIsNotSolidWhenBearingIn

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